Predicting the future is complicated process, particularly when it involves assessing the future economies of the world. It requires a systematic and comprehensive analysis of different critical economic variables and infrastructures. Some of the factors taken into consideration in predicting future per capita income and GDPs of different countries include rule of law, fertility rates, democratic institutions and education systems.
After carefully analyzing the economies of 100 countries, HSBC eventually came up with a list of countries whose economies are predicted to be among the most advanced in 2050. Of course the list is largely made up of countries whose economies are already flourishing. There are however, a couple of startling revelations- the Philippines, for instance, is predicted to grow at a considerably rate that it will jump from the 43rd biggest economy to the 16th by the year 2050.
To give you a better idea of the whole issue, here are 4 of the richest countries in 2050:
- China $25.33 trillion
The current world’s most populous nation is expected to be the richest country in 2050. Its persistent push to modernize its economy, and the absorption of Macao and Hong Kong into its overall economic system will predictably propel its economy to the top spot in the next couple of decades.
China’s Achilles heel is the one child policy, which will significantly reduce the overall working population by 2050. By that time, it’s expected to be the second most populous country.
- United States- $22.27 Trillion
The United States, which currently holds the top spot as the world’s biggest economy, will remain in that position for a couple of decades until it’s ultimately overtaken by China. At the moment, it’s economy is twice as big as the next richest country- Japan. Over time however, due to a sluggish income per capita growth, the top spot will be relinquished to Asian countries. As a matter of fact, the United States, along with Norway and Luxembourg are the developed countries which are expected to experience the slowest income per capita growth.
- India- $8.7 Trillion
By the time we get to 2050, India will be a clear demonstration of how increased population growth positively impacts the economy. Unless they introduce stringent family planning laws, India’s population will progressively increase and eventually even surpass China- which has already imposed childbirth control laws. With such a high population, the country’s workforce will propel its economy past other huge economies including Germany, Britain and Russia.
- Japan- $6.43 Trillion
Even with the current challenges Japan experiences with a reduced fertility rate of 1.3 children per person, and an increasingly aging population- the country is expected to still be among the world’s most elite economies by 2050. It will however, drop two places from position 2 to 4- mainly due to a predicted population drop of 25 million. Fortunately for them, they are implementing effectual strategies to cater to the aging society and deal with a shrinking workforce.
Other countries that made the list of the top richest economies by 2050 include: Russia, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and a host of other European countries.